So you’ve signed up for a fantasy football league. Perhaps with your friends or online at ESPN, Yahoo!, or NFL.com. You want to win your league of course, but how do you get started?
Well assuming you have already signed up for a league, picked out a great team name like Favre From Over or I Dream of Mangini, and learned all the rules and scoring settings that will apply to your team, then it’s time to start doing your research. The interwebs make it almost too easy. Head over to ESPN’s fantasy football page to get started. They’ve got several regular columnists and plenty of player rankings. Then spread out and look over the draft kits at Yahoo!, CBS, Fox Sports, and NFL.com.
The ranking lists give you the quick and dirty about how players stack up, however, lists will differ. Notice where the disagreements are and look into it. Decide which rankings you agree with the most so you can use it as your central guide for building your own personal cheatsheet. Oh, also check out Sports Illustrated, fftoolbox.com and fftoday.com for further reading.
It’s good to read the regular football news too. Sometimes fantasy guys get a little lost in the projections and trends, and fail to update you about pre-season camp news or important comments made by coaches.
Although you get all these pre-made cheatsheets ranking out each player compared to the others, I suggest you also make your own. The professional analysts will play it safe, if you think Michael Turner is going to underperform this year, you can recognize this on your own list and rank him down. Feel free to organize players by position, and list out important information beside their names, such as average draft position and projected point production. The point of a cheatsheet is to have everything you need available at a glance, because when the draft does come, you’ll have no time to think it over.
It’s also important to develop a strategy. What players you get will largely be determined by where you draft from in the order, but it’s important to have a plan for what type of players you want. This year the Talented Mr. Roto over at ESPN recommends you grab two top wide receivers in the first four rounds because they are so much more reliable than running backs, who lately have been something of a crapshoot projection-wise. Make the plan that feels best to you. Perhaps you think it would be best to get two RBs with your first two picks, or you plan to pick up Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers with your first pick if you can’t get a top four running back. Use an average draft position to get an idea of who might be available to you at what pick, here is ESPN’s, although the website hosting your league will be the most reliable source.
Snake drafts are hard to plan out in any detail, they are mostly about taking the best player available. However, using those draft rankings, imagine out scenarios where you go at the front, middle or back of the draft order. List out possible teams you would get, and list out how many points such a team is expected to produce each week to see how well such a line-up would do. During the draft you want to select players who will produce way more points than the next guy you could get at that position. For example if Aaron Rodgers is projected to get 330 points this season, and the next QB you could get would be Tony Romo at 260 points, then Rodgers would be a better pick than say running back DeAngelo Williams at 190 when next round you could get Shonn Greene at 180.
Okay, now that you know how to prepare, let’s break up a snake draft and discuss some principles that might help you at each point:
First Round : If you get one of the first four picks this year, I strongly recommend you pick one of the top four running backs. There’s no need to get clever, you’ve already lucked out by getting such a high pick.
If you get one of the mid-round picks you have some options. Most people would take a running back from the not-quite-top-tier guys (Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Michael Turner to be specific), however, don’t assume these guys are money in the bank. Fact is, running backs are hard to predict. And all three of those guys have a lot of question marks around them, which is why none of them are in the top tier.
Your second option is to instead take a top tier QB. Aaron Rodgers is scrambler, and the extra yards and TDs he’ll pick up as a result are expected to drive his point production north of 300. Drew Brees is a Super Bowl winning quarterback in a pass heavy system and the skill to throw for between 4,600 to 4,800 yards. Both are going in the first round this year, so if you want one you’ll have to get him now.
If you get stuck at the end of the order, don’t panic. Those almost-top-tier running backs may provide you a cushion allowing you to take Brees or Rodgers. Then since you start off the second round you have the chance to swipe a top WR, such as Andre Johnson, Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald.
Second Round : The second round is dependent on your draft strategy and your first pick. If your goal was to get one great RB, then a QB and 2 WRs, and you just picked up Ray Rice, then right now is a great time to snag Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. If you were denied a great RB, perhaps you decide to get the best QB and WRs you can before picking a decent RB out of this year’s fat middle of running talent. The more you thought about it in advance, the more likely it is you’ll make the best decision for you.
Third and Fourth Rounds : Continue to round things off. This is where research on mid-level starting talent can really pay off. Know which guys you think are most likely to break away from the pack and become a stud. I recommend you spend the first four rounds filling out QB, RB, and WR spots. Tight ends might start getting drafted at the end of the fourth round, which is okay, but make sure there isn’t an RB or WR who you wouldn’t like better before you start spending high picks on Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates.
Fifth through Eighth Rounds : You spend these rounds filling out your starting roster and maybe making your first bench pick. Wait on getting a kicker or a defense. When you’re picking mid-round guys I like to go for the ones with either the most potential to over-perform or the most likely to be a solid contributor who won’t underperform. Obviously knowing a lot about the players helps you figure out this sort of thing.
Ninth through Twelfth : The trend in online leagues seems to be headed toward getting a kicker and defense in these rounds. Older fantasy veterans laugh at this, the common wisdom being that both of these positions are hard to predict, and that generally no one in these fields significantly outperforms anybody else. The math doesn’t strictly bear this out, but that still doesn’t make spending your tenth pick on a kicker a good idea. Fact is, there are still going to be decent RBs and WRs available in these rounds, and you don’t want to miss out on them. One of them could explode this year and earn you a lot more points than you’ll lose by not getting a top 5 kicker. You can always trade some numbskull who doesn’t have a decent second RB for his great kicker anyway.
Thirteenth to End : Here’s where you find your sleepers, kicker and defense. Pick up the sleepers everybody knows about first, or else somebody else will. Now like I mentioned before, the old veterans of fantasy say draft your kicker in the last round, but feel free to ignore this advice. There’s nothing wrong with picking a kicker two or three rounds before the end of the draft. Especially if you’re playing in an online league filled with people who aren’t going to steal your last couple sleeper picks because they’re just following the list the draft room gives them. If you do get a “crappy” kicker or defense, don’t despair. The projected top ten for these positions isn’t going to be the actual top ten. Watch the waiver wire for a stud in the making once the season starts.
Once the draft is over take a minute and look over your new team. Appreciate how well balanced your squad is over the rest of your league. Once the season starts remember those sleeper picks aren’t just there to fill in on bye weeks. Use overperformers to trade and fill in your deficiencies. Odds are one of your great starting picks will have a bad season due to injury, cold streak, marital difficulties, and you’ll need to replace him.
Well that’s it, so get out there and start doing your research. When you’re ready head over to ESPN or Yahoo! and try out their mock drafts to practice. Good luck with your season!
