Drafting Your Fantasy Pitching Rotation

The pitching side of a fantasy baseball is a much ignored topic, which is a shame since it’s half of the game. Batting is much more exciting so people focus on that. But you’re not going to win your league with that attitude, not after 2010 and The Year of the Pitcher. Setting up a great pitching roster will give you a huge five category advantage over your opponent owners.

This year starting pitching is quite deep, and the difference between the top 20 or 30 starters is huge compared to the late round scrubs. The old days of saving $9 for your nine pitchers or just sweeping up whatever’s left in the last rounds of your draft isn’t likely to get it done. But how do you organize a good fantasy rotation in your draft? Let’s find out.

SNAKE DRAFTS

People in snake drafts have a bit of a disadvantage compared to those using an auction, when it comes to picking pitchers. The best of the best pitchers will usually be chosen in the first few rounds; the Halladays, the Lincecums, the Lees, these types will all go by the fourth round. So you might think you need to plan on spending one of your top three picks to grab one of these super-aces, but there’s a problem with that. You see those first three, four, five rounds, those rounds all have a lot of great hitters in them. Normally each of these top rounds have one or two pitchers, but eight or nine batters who will be chosen that high. And when you take a pitcher early, maybe no more pitchers will go off the board before your next pick, but quite a few batters will.

Trying to make up for what you lose in offense by spending a second or third round pick on a pitcher, may not be possible. And your team will look a little hobbled going into the season. Which is why the veterans tend to stay away from picking any pitchers until they have a solid core of four to six star batters anchoring their roster.

The good news is, even if you wait till the sixth round to take a couple pitchers, the depth at aces is such that you’ll still be able to get a great two or three guys. Guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Roy Oswalt, or David Price are value aces you can have without sacrificing your offensive stars.

After you get those two or three, you can switch back to batters and keep stacking your roster with mid-level talent for a few rounds, before switching back over again and grabbing a few more pitchers. You’ll have to do your homework on starting pitchers to know which mid-rotation guys you like best. As for relief pitchers my recommendation is, you wait! Leave the irrational love affair with closers for real life baseball managers, the fact is it’s an unpredictable position and not worth sacrificing for.

AUCTION DRAFTS

If you’re doing an auction you can plan out exactly what you want, and probably be able to get it. How much you want to spend on pitching is up to you, although $70 to $90 out of $260 overall, is a responsible amount. With the depth in pitching this year, you can afford a lot with that budget.

If your league uses a standard eight or nine pitchers you’ll probably want six or seven starters and two or three closers. The more starting pitchers you have available the more Ks and Ws you’re going to get. And the more closers the more Saves.

Put the majority of your money in starters, not relievers. Don’t waste good money on relievers. If you’re using a standard $260 auction budget, top aces will probably be around $25, mid-aces $18, and lower-aces $12. To build a good rotation, try getting four to six of these guys. This is doable because there are around twenty ace-potential pitchers available in mixed league play, so grabbing up more than your fair share of them still won’t cause much competition in bidding.

Which guys you want and how you budget it all out is up to you. Using ESPN standard leagues as an example, if you wanted four ace pitchers you could grab Felix Hernandez SEA for $25, CC Sabathia NYY for $20, Ubaldo Jimenez COL for $16 and then Matt Cain SF for $12. That totals $73, although you’ll probably need a few extra dollars for overages.

Or if you want to get a deeper roster and take six aces you could focus on more value-minded picks, Justin Verlander DET for $17, Tommy Hanson ATL for $15, Dan Haren LAA for $13, Mat Latos SD for $13, Roy Oswalt PHI for $12, and finally Jared Weaver LAA at $12. All that will cost you $82, which isn’t too bad. Grab a couple relievers for a couple bucks each and you’ve got your whole pitching roster for $90.

Or you can get four or five cheaper aces, then top them off with a couple sleeper starters for cheap and save more money for offense. It’s all up to you and what kind of team you want to build.

HOW MANY STARTERS? HOW MANY RELIEVERS?

It’s important to consider how many starters you want to have on your team and how many relievers you want on your team. It all depends on your league. The important thing to notice is how many starters and relievers are usually owned by your competition. If all the other owners have seven starters, no matter how good your SPs are, if you only have four of them you’ll be at a huge disadvantage in Ks and Wins. This is something that sometimes catches fantasy newbies unaware. Of course if you then have four relief pitchers to fill out your rotation you’ll probably have the advantage in Saves.

A lot of players often skip having an extra pitcher or two for their bench spots. But having extra pitchers can really pad your numbers. Even if you don’t draft your team this way, during the season consider replacing one of your scrub batters who isn’t working out with a pitcher on the waiver wire who is working out.

EVALUATING YOUR PROSPECTS

Not all aces are equal, some will have a boom year and others will go bust. As a fantasy team owner picking players, nothing beats being lucky, but second to that is making informed choices. But maybe you don’t have time to fly between Florida and Arizona all March to take notes and get a first hand look at how your possible starters are looking this year. In that case, use the internet! There are lots of sources of fantasy information and rankings available online, actively updating through Spring Training. And the good ones are all free!

To keep up on pitchers try ESPN, Yahoo!, Sports Illustrated, [then some more of the less established just fantasy sports sites]

The basic thing to remember is to look at the reliable stats. A pitcher’s WHIP tells you more than their ERA, and tends to be more consistent year to year. Also a pitcher’s [do the pitcher stats that matter here]

A lot of old timer fantasy baseball types will tell you players in this game are nothing but a collection of numbers, but those guys are wrong and probably have social problems. Fact is, you only know what these player’s numbers used to be, not what they will be, so always error on the side of taking the players you like best. Trust your gut, and in your favorite teams and players. Regret comes from not taking the guy you wanted.

PITCHER DEPTH IN 2011

As I noted above pitching is quite deep this year. At least twenty players are considered legitimate aces, and although some might get hurt before opening day (i.e. Adam Wainwright) there’s going to be plenty for pitcher loving fantasy owners in most leagues. If you draft four or five great pitchers, you can’t be sure they’ll all have good seasons but you can certainly mitigate the damage of any underperformers by having so many other guys doing well.

Of course, other owners are going to have access to these guys too, which is why I think you shouldn’t be afraid of committing the money to making sure you get enough of them. Owners who try a timid approach to pitching may get one or two top pitchers, but they’ll be dragged down by their mediocre backups. By having five or so of these guys and then maybe one or two cheap starters you think may break out, they’ll have no chance of competing with you in pitching categories. And you’ll be well positioned to compete with the other pitcher loving owners.

PAYING FOR SAVES?

Relief pitchers are unpredictable. Teams like to change who they use to close games all the time, and just because a guy picks up 40 saves last year doesn’t mean he’s money in the bank for this year. And not only that, but with 30 teams, there tends to be relief pitchers available on the waiver wire if you need another one.

Because of these reasons it is inadvisable to pay good auction money just for a reliever. Don’t pay to get Saves. Brian Wilson SF may go for as much as $14 in your league auction, enough to buy an ace starter like Mat Latos. Don’t waste your money. Take the ace and then do your homework and pick up a few closers for a couple of bucks each. And whether you pay good money for your RPs or not, keep an active eye on bullpen news so you’ll be aware when a change is being discussed.

If you play in an AL or NL only league, you’ll have to pay just to get what would be a cheap, end of draft closer in a mixed league. But this should come as no surprise, you have to pay for everything in an AL or NL league.

USING MIDDLE RELIEVERS

Unless your league counts Holds as a category, most mixed league owners will never think too much about middle relievers. These guys pick up the slack of innings six through eight, usually heading out at least by the ninth so the true closer can come in an get those final three overprice, overhyped outs. But the thing is, some of these middle relievers are good. Really good. It’s just they probably can’t throw more than 40 pitches in a day without their arm falling off and running away.

However, just because these pitchers don’t get the total amount of innings a starter will, nor the amount of saves a real closer will, they can be good for dragging down both your ERA and WHIP and picking up a few extra Ks as well. Elite middle guys like Chris Sale CHW, Daniel Bard BOS, or Ryan Madson PHI can add a lot to your team and won’t cost you a thing to add to your team. And not only can they help out pad your stats, some of them have a very realistic chance of taking over for their team’s current closer. A little extra homework has the potential to pay off with these guys. You just have to be willing to make the extra roster space available for them.

IN CONCLUSION

They’ve declared 2010 was The Year of the Pitcher, but it was likely the beginning of a much longer era. The Giants won the World Series without a single real offensive star, but a great rotation. You probably won’t be able to win your league that way, but with the golden age of steroids gone and dead, there’s never been a better time to focus on those other five categories. The number of roto points or category wins you rack up can only help you in your quest to win your league!

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