Fantasy Baseball demands you take not only all-stars, but also cheap, probably mediocre players as well to fill out your roster. Often times, league winners are the ones who get maximum production out of their minimally priced players. So before you draft you need to do your homework and find out who the experts like to overperform this season and give you good value for your late round draft pick or $1 bid.
To help you out, I’ve listed many of the repeatedly talked about sleepers for this year, organized by position. I’m only including cheap sleepers, guys who shouldn’t cost you more than $4-$5 in an auction, at most. Once you read about guys you like here you can research them further to see if you like their potential and if they’ll fit your team strategy in terms of production. Hope this helps, and good luck in your draft!
C
J.P. Arencibia TOR – The new catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays. He has serious pop potential, with the usual terrible batting average. It’s likely if he doesn’t absolutely blow it or get hurt, he’ll be getting a lot of at bats and could get 25 to 30 home runs. Not bad for a deeper choice at a weak position.
Matt Wieters BAL – A bit of a post-hype player, Wieters didn’t quite live up to expectations last year, perhaps because they were just too high too early. But he’ll only get better and could be a huge savings for an owner at the very shallow catcher position.
1B
Lance Berkman STL – Berkman is old but he’s trying to get back into shape and has a decent spot in the batting lineup of a powerful offensive team. So consider him a possible .265/75/20/75. Hey if all you’re one dollar players do that well, that’s pretty good.
Kila Ka’aihue KC – He’s a sleepier sleeper than many, but he has serious power potential, it just remains to be seen if he can do anything with it. Probably a .250 batting average, but you pick him for the potential he’s really good and gets 25+ home runs.
Justin Smoak SEA – He came up last year to a lot of buzz, but he sucked. He’s got talent and a good bat, so odds are he was just working out his rookie kinks. Consider him possible for .270/75/20/75, or possibly he still sucks and needs to be matured more.
Freddie Freeman ATL – Freddie is only 21 but he is expected to have the starting job in Atlanta. Projections tend to be a little scattered given how little people have seen, but look for a .275/60/15/70 kind of year. Maybe a good guy to keep an eye on in the waiver wire.
Mitch Moreland TEX – A new guy joining up with the powerful Ranger offense. One problem is he’s at 1B and may be sharing time and at bats as the team tries to juggle their roster around. Still some prognosticators really believe in him to the tune of .270/70/20/85.
Gaby Sanchez FLA – The Marlins are a sleeper heavy team. And while Sanchez might not be a Statonesque level sleeper (who is so awesome a sleeper that he costs as much as he would if he wasn’t a sleeper), he still has the potential to be an above average hitter for many years to come. Upside to .275/75/25/90.
2B
Sean Rodriguez TB – Alright, to be honest, most experts are projecting a .260/60/15/60/10 kind of season, if that, for Rodriguez. But at 25 if he begins to show his potential and if the Rays make him the definite starter with enough at-bats, he could turn that into a .260/90/15/70/20 kind of season.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka MIN – A young Japanese star who is transitioning over to the MLB. You can say no one knows how he’ll do in this big league, but he’s a good hitter and good base stealer. And batting toward the top of the Twins lineup should keep him in decent Runs and RBIs. For a couple dollars? Why not?
Neil Walker PIT – An up-and-coming rookie, his Avg. will likely fall somewhat this season due to a previously high BABIP, but he has power and could get something like .270/80/20/80. He’s got upside. Though he does play for the Pirates.
3B
Edwin Encarnacion TOR – A Blue Jay sleeper? Bet he can hit home runs. There’s some shake-up going on in Toronto’s lineup, but if all the changes the team wants go according to plan, Encarnacion could get the starting spot and a full season of at-bats. Possibly .260/70/30/70.
Ian Stewart COL – A good potential star in the making, the real concern for him is that Colorado has too many starting level 3B standing right behind him. Then again he might realistically go off for .260/80/25/80/5. Cheap power potential.
David Freese STL – Suffered some ankle and broken toe problems last year, but he’s a savvy batter who showed power in the minors. A possible .285/70/15/85 season ahead.
Mark Reynolds BAL – In 2009 he hit 44 home runs, stole 24 bases, and hit an average of .260. In 2010 he hit 32 home runs, stole 7 bases, and hit an average of .198. That batting average killed that category for any team that owned him. But what if goes back to the 40 home run and .250–.260 Mark Reynolds?
Chris Johnson HOU – Played half of last year and did really, really well. He’s 26, so coming into his prime, and if you extended his numbers from last year he would have hit something like 70/20/90 and with a .300 Avg. His BABIP was high so expect some regression, but don’t overdo it, still possibly shooting for .275/70/20/80.
Danny Valencia MIN – Won the 3B job with the Twins last year and finished 85 games with a Avg. of .311. This year expect a possible .300+/65/10/70.
SS
J.J. Hardy BAL – Shortstop is a shallow position. But if you don’t snag a top pick at this position, Hardy could provide a decent .270/60/20/60. He certainly won’t cost you your league with those numbers.
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE – Broke his arm last year, stealing his own thunder. But there’s no reason to believe he can’t get back on track to a .280/80/5/60/20 season, plus. And if he does do that good, you could make like the Indians and sell him at a profit. Err… trade him at a profit.
Alcides Escobar KC – He didn’t do so hot last year, but real 25 steal potential and hopefully an improving .270-.280 Avg. And even possibly decent Run and RBI production. When people say speed is cheap, Escobar is someone they’re referring to.
Miguel Tejada SF – Tejada at 36, is on the downside of his career production. But just like rookies people bite too early on, should fantasy owners be so quick to write him off? Realistic best case could look like .280/75/15/75.
OF
Jose Tabata PIT – A name that comes up frequently for cheap, reliable production. It’s reasonable to expect .280/80/5/60/30; he’s got speed, but no power. Still a good guy to lean on from the bench.
Logan Morrison FLA – The poor man’s Mike Stanton, except he hits for decent to high BA and doesn’t hit many home runs. High upside and a solid Run, RBI, and AVG production cheapie.
Domonic Brown PHI – A popular sleeper, but divides experts. Some think he could be a 90/25/90/30 guy; others, half that. Unfortunately he broke his hand in Spring Training and will probably miss some games if not his starting position.
Austin Jackson DET – “Broke-out” last year, except nobody really thinks he did (.396 BABIP). But he has the potential to get really good Run and SB production and hit at mid-level Avg. If he does start hot, his level of production will likely not be available on the waiver wire.
Adam Jones BAL – An overlooked mid-level production guy on Baltimore’s improving batting lineup. He could easily provide a .275/70/20/70/10 kind of year. Not a dollar guy, but still cheap.
Jason Bay NYM – Fell off a cliff last year, he’s a few bucks but his upside is high as a former star player. But he’s also old and his downside is notable.
Nick Swisher NYY – Remember him from Moneyball? Well he’s a Yankee now and he could be providing you 90/30/90 production, with a small caveat of .260ish Avg. Costs a few bucks, but if he lives up to his potential… well he’s worth it.
SP
Brandon Marrow TOR – Some people are in love with Marrow this year, believing he will end a top 20 ace. He definitely has improved since heading to Toronto, averaging around 13 Ks/9 innings on the back half of last season. If you’re relying on getting a few great sleeper pitchers, Marrow definitely warrants your attention.
Jake Peavy CHW – Last year Peavy suffered a devastating injury when he tore a tendon near his throwing arm completely off the bone. Nobody has come back from this kind of injury, but Peavy has already started throwing again, and is expected to not miss anything beyond April assuming nothing else goes wrong. Peavy is a former Cy Young winner and still young enough to post a good year.
Madison Bumgarner SF – The Giants seem to know what they are doing when it comes to pitchers, and Bumgarner moved up from the minors last year and was smoking teams in the playoffs. He’s probably got some rookie curve to get through, but like fellow rotation mate Jonathan Sanchez he is being overlooked by many. Bumgarner is young, but a definite high upside sleeper.
Brian Matusz BAL – Matusz is a well known sleeper, coming off a hot second half last year. Be aware, nerds have proven that the second half of the season isn’t anymore statistically relevant for future predictions than any other time, but for young guys, it can alert you that the progress from rook to mid-level player has taken place. If you’re looking for a sleeper, draft him with confidence.
Gio Gonzalez OAK – This kid has been throwing serious stuff from the mound, though his control is still a work in progress. A’s pitching can be streaky, but they definitely lean on their ability to recognize cheap, young talent to add to their rotation. Last year posted 200 innings, 171 Ks, 3.23 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP. Experts think that ERA goes to around 4 this year.
Brandon Webb TEX – Webb used to be all that and a box of cracker jacks, but has spent the last two years on injury timeout due to a shoulder problem. Texas thinks he can come back, and if he does, he could be really, really good. May be a severely overlooked SP this year by most experts.
Jordan Zimmerman WAS – Coming back from Tommy John surgery, he got some pitching in last year and should hopefully actually come back to form this year. He’s still a young guy with improvement ahead, but he could do quite well given his current position.
Mike Minor ATL – He’s a deeper sleeper, but some people seem to be in love with the guy. He’s got good strike out ability, and his fans think he could post a sub 1.30 WHIP, though probably not elite level ERA. Check him out!
Jair Jurrjens ATL – He’s had some injuries in the last few years and may be getting overlooked as a solid rotation member—also has a name with wonderfully high repeatability. Experts think he could achieve around 1.30 WHIP and a 3.80 ERA. Not real high innings expected though, 100-125 Ks.
James Shields TB – Everyone on the Tampa Bay staff could be considered a sleeper, except David Price who some people hate despite being a value-friendly ace. I won’t go into why Price haters gonna hate, but the guy right behind him, James Shields might be a guy to love. He was quite unlucky last year, and he could potentially drag his ERA down below 4.00 and his WHIP to around 1.30.
Javier Vazquez FLA – He’s dead to me, but a switch over the NL might revive his career a little. He basically got clobbered in New York last year and wasted a lot of people a perfectly good draft pick. The reason was he’s lost too much speed off his pitches, and I don’t think it’s coming back. His real potential comes from him becoming a savvy veteran who can hurl effective junk up there to lesser hitters.
Jaime Garcia STL – He did quite well for a cheap pitcher last year, 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and while everyone expects regression to the mean after such performances, keep him in mind as a cheap pitcher who has done it before. He has some inning limitations, but he’s low priced for a reason.
Gavin Floyd CHW – Floyd is part of the White Sox secretly decent starting roster. He has some impressive streakiness in him, though overall he’ll likely be able to post a decent 1.30-1.40 WHIP and 3.80-4.00 ERA.
C.J. Wilson TEX – Perhaps the worst kept secret in sleeperdom. After the departure of Cliff Lee, Wilson was left to become the staff “ace” in Texas, the question is can he progress into becoming a real ace. I say yes, but then so do lots of other people, and in several mock drafts I’ve been in he’s set off minor bidding wars. Sub 3.50 ERA, sub 1.30 WHIP, around 170 Ks.
Wade Davis TB – A minor sleeper, Wade Davis has raw talent and is little post hype at this point. But he’s still very young and may yet be pre-prime. Not many people will fight you for Davis, instead preferring the Rays other prospect Hellickson, but he has the potential to be a decent mid-rotation fantasy starter. At the very least some day.
RP
Brad Lidge PHI – Brad Lidge is a reliable save getter, with very random ERA. The great thing about him is the Phillies love him and aren’t replacing him, and he’s on a fantastic pitching staff. But he could screw up your ERA a little for expertly low ERA owners.
Leo Nunez FLA – He can get saves, unless the Marlins somehow land a great closer and replace him mid-season. His problem is a common one for relief sleepers, he runs hot and cold. Sometimes he does well and finishes with a good ERA/WHIP. Other times he blows saves and gives up runs. So you draft him hoping he is on the good side of his streakiness.
Drew Storen WAS – Storen is a young, star closer in the making. If he continues to progress he could have an elite year in terms of saves, reliever level Ks, ERA and WHIP. You don’t want to pay for saves, and picking up a young potentially great closer before he busts out is a great way to do that.
