When draft day starts everybody begins with roughly the same amount of purchasing power. In snake drafts you might get the 9th position instead of the 1st position, but at least you get a first round pick. In auction drafts everybody gets exactly the same number of dollars to buy his team with. But when draft day is over not everybody has done an equal job using that purchasing power to get equal value. Those who have done their research can find the undervalued talent and avoid the overvalued, getting more bang for their buck.
To assist you in this task, I have made a quick list of all the players who this year appear to be somewhat undervalued by the biggest online fantasy sites, ESPN and Yahoo!. Because of the professional and social demands placed on fantasy analysts, there are always some inefficiencies created in the draft-day market as they over-avoid risks and over-use fantasy truisms they know will protect them from criticism.
No without further wait, here are some of these players:
Michael Vick (QB) - The QB who if he had played all 16 games on pace would have scored 450 fantasy points in a standard league. Now they don't even want to make him the #1 quarterback. The arguments are all bad ones, that he is an injury risk (will debunk shortly), that defenses have figured him out (they began crowing that mid-season last year and watched his production fail to slow down), that he hasn't proved he is consistent (how many years should you wait on a superstar before letting him win your league for you?).
There is no reasonable argument against Vick that doesn't generally exist for every player in football. Now he is an injury risk. He style of play and lesser-sized build in NFL terms means he may likely end up missing a few weeks this season just as he did last season. But is this really as bad as they make it out to be? If he breaks his leg on opening day and has to spend eight months on crutches, straight through the rest of the season, yes that would be a problem. But that's true for every player. With Vick you are thinking rib bruises and other body injuries that might keep him out a few weeks. So what? You set a new roster every week, put in the backup you've picked for him, such as the sure-to-be-cheap Sam Bradford, and keep chugging along. The experts early opinion makes it sound like just because Vick may miss a month or two that you're team will be out of QB points for that entire time. Which is total nonsense. Vick + Backup QB could easily equal 400 fantasy points, assuming he does get injured. If not, maybe you'll be getting that 450 he was on pace for last year.
That sort of production basically makes him worth an Arian Foster, except probably ten times more likely to repeat. You can win your league with the production of this guy over the rest of the average QBs you'll be facing.
Peyton Hillis (RB) - A star running back available off the waiver wire last year, for some reason his value plummeted amongst the pre-season rankings. Frankly, there is no good reason. He looked great last year, got banged up and finished weak. So did Adrian Peterson, he a fourth rounder now too? Honestly ESPN would have you pay $25 for Hillis in an auction, but $35 for Steven Jackson or Michael Turner, both first-rounders he outperformed?
I'm not at all guaranteeing he will outdo those two RBs or any of the rest of the runners put ahead of him. Preseason predictions are nothing but absurdly wild guesses because some false sense of certainty is required by fantasy owners. But as long as we're giving our best guesses, you might as not make a prediction as dumb as placing Peyton Hillis so low on the draft board. Definite value in this guy.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis (RB) - Rated quite lowly under the idea that the only player who can be trusted to score fantasy points under Bill Belichick is Tom Brady, I think the hate might have gone a little too far. Frankly, Danny Woodhead isn't Ray Rice, he's not going to fill the void for a back who can actually run at the line and expect to walk away alive. Other lesser backs also threaten to talk Green-Ellis' playing time, I'm skeptical of them as well. There is such a thing as overconfidence in Bill Belichick's ability to simply plug in anyone and get the same results. His success is much more complicated, and I would add fragile, than that. So if you think he's just going to toss off a successful running game because it's not his style to have singularly great players, think twice. Definitely has value as a well-priced #2 back.
Ryan Grant (RB) - The one thing that was clearly established over Green Bay's season last year, was that no one established themselves as Ryan Grant's replacement. Injured on a freak ankle destroying injury last year in game one, Grant was a huge disappointment for anyone who drafted him. But now he's back and until you get definite word from the Packers that he's been replaced, waived, and sent on mission work to South America, he's got a lot more value than the preseason prognosticators have assigned him.
Joseph Addai (RB) - An aging guy who might end up getting replaced during another injury outing, or a who could earn 200 fantasy points. Fantasy experts for some reason just salivate at the idea of correctly guessing the year an aging star will fall off a cliff, and as such over-predict just such a thing happening at about a 2% success rate. He's the type of player you want to double check on to make sure he's not being forced out, but take any loose talk about some up and coming guys behind him with a big grain of salt.
LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) - He was on old joke last year until Shonn Greene suddenly proved he had no business being the Jets starting running back and LT went about doing what he's done his whole career. This lasted until about week 10, when he finally wore down and his responsibilities were spread around more. This year he's going to go cheap again, just because it's so unbelievable that he could do again what it seemed unbelievable last year. I say take the chance and reap the rewards. Veterans are always too quickly written off, just as rookies too quickly hyped up.
Chris Ivory (RB) - New Orleans best running back last year is now a $1 sleeper on ESPN? Thanks but I believe I will be more than willing to save a spot on my roster for the man who deserves to be the starter for the Saints. A definite every team bench pickup until the preseason games prove me wrong.
Miles Austin (WR) - Last year all my fantasy teams greatly benefited from my strategy of drafting top tier, but unappreciated wide-outs like Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Greg Jennings. This year all those guys will be going for way too much, while equally-talented steals like Miles Austin will be available after them. He has all the things you want in a #1 WR, talent, the team's top depth spot, and a star QB. This pick-up is a serious no-brainer.
Vincent Jackson (WR) - Not an absurdly great value, but definitely a guy whose price to production ratio makes him a terrific buy. Remember all those fantasy points Antonio Gates was getting last year? Now imagine them going to Vincent Jackson. I look forward to stocking quite a few teams up with a Jackson/Austin combo at the same auction price some other dude will pay for Andre Johnson.
Brandon Lloyd (WR) - Hey, I'm not going to blow smoke up your skirt with Lloyd, he likely vastly overperformed last year. You've got coaching changes, possible QB changes, team strategy changes and, again, a guy who just hasn't seemed to prove it to many people. But after last year's performance the Broncos would be fools not to try and utilize him as much as they can. What else do they have? Every slightly talented player on that team needs to be run at 110% if they aren't going to suffer another embarrassment of a season. For the price he's been evaluated at, I don't think you should feel any shame for grabbing up Lloyd, last year's top receiver.
Percy Harvin (WR) - As Minnesota's new #1 Harvin has gained quite a bit of value over last year. And let's not forget about the Viking's QB replacement of the completely ineffectual Brett Favre to the still capable Donovan McNabb. The hate's gone a little too far on McNabb: yes the Redskins and McNabb sucked last year, but did the Redskins suck because of McNabb or did McNabb suck because of the Redskins? Watching a good number of passes bounce off of Redskin receivers' hands last year should be a clue. Harvin is a cheap #1 wide-out who could make an excellent #2 fantasy WR.
Kevin Kolb (QB) - Last year he's heralded as a new star, now some sports analysts wonder if the Cardinals giving up a 2nd round pick was too much. Now, I'm not saying those analysts aren't dumb, to a man they all are, but it just goes to show how poor memory and judgement can be in the sports world. Kolb has the talent to be a top of league star and now he's definitely starting and he's definitely throwing the either #1 or #2 most talented wide receiver in the league, Larry Fitzgerald. I think if you don't want to get one of the high-potential scramblers (Vick or Rodgers) you could wait till the very end of the draft on Kolb, and get a guy who might only finish the season 20 or 30 points behind the expensive guys like Manning and Brees.
Well that's all the great values for now. Be sure to check out other articles from this year's Fantasy Football Abstract to get lots more draft day strategy and player info. Now get out there, and good luck!
To assist you in this task, I have made a quick list of all the players who this year appear to be somewhat undervalued by the biggest online fantasy sites, ESPN and Yahoo!. Because of the professional and social demands placed on fantasy analysts, there are always some inefficiencies created in the draft-day market as they over-avoid risks and over-use fantasy truisms they know will protect them from criticism.
No without further wait, here are some of these players:
Michael Vick (QB) - The QB who if he had played all 16 games on pace would have scored 450 fantasy points in a standard league. Now they don't even want to make him the #1 quarterback. The arguments are all bad ones, that he is an injury risk (will debunk shortly), that defenses have figured him out (they began crowing that mid-season last year and watched his production fail to slow down), that he hasn't proved he is consistent (how many years should you wait on a superstar before letting him win your league for you?).
There is no reasonable argument against Vick that doesn't generally exist for every player in football. Now he is an injury risk. He style of play and lesser-sized build in NFL terms means he may likely end up missing a few weeks this season just as he did last season. But is this really as bad as they make it out to be? If he breaks his leg on opening day and has to spend eight months on crutches, straight through the rest of the season, yes that would be a problem. But that's true for every player. With Vick you are thinking rib bruises and other body injuries that might keep him out a few weeks. So what? You set a new roster every week, put in the backup you've picked for him, such as the sure-to-be-cheap Sam Bradford, and keep chugging along. The experts early opinion makes it sound like just because Vick may miss a month or two that you're team will be out of QB points for that entire time. Which is total nonsense. Vick + Backup QB could easily equal 400 fantasy points, assuming he does get injured. If not, maybe you'll be getting that 450 he was on pace for last year.
That sort of production basically makes him worth an Arian Foster, except probably ten times more likely to repeat. You can win your league with the production of this guy over the rest of the average QBs you'll be facing.
Peyton Hillis (RB) - A star running back available off the waiver wire last year, for some reason his value plummeted amongst the pre-season rankings. Frankly, there is no good reason. He looked great last year, got banged up and finished weak. So did Adrian Peterson, he a fourth rounder now too? Honestly ESPN would have you pay $25 for Hillis in an auction, but $35 for Steven Jackson or Michael Turner, both first-rounders he outperformed?
I'm not at all guaranteeing he will outdo those two RBs or any of the rest of the runners put ahead of him. Preseason predictions are nothing but absurdly wild guesses because some false sense of certainty is required by fantasy owners. But as long as we're giving our best guesses, you might as not make a prediction as dumb as placing Peyton Hillis so low on the draft board. Definite value in this guy.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis (RB) - Rated quite lowly under the idea that the only player who can be trusted to score fantasy points under Bill Belichick is Tom Brady, I think the hate might have gone a little too far. Frankly, Danny Woodhead isn't Ray Rice, he's not going to fill the void for a back who can actually run at the line and expect to walk away alive. Other lesser backs also threaten to talk Green-Ellis' playing time, I'm skeptical of them as well. There is such a thing as overconfidence in Bill Belichick's ability to simply plug in anyone and get the same results. His success is much more complicated, and I would add fragile, than that. So if you think he's just going to toss off a successful running game because it's not his style to have singularly great players, think twice. Definitely has value as a well-priced #2 back.
Ryan Grant (RB) - The one thing that was clearly established over Green Bay's season last year, was that no one established themselves as Ryan Grant's replacement. Injured on a freak ankle destroying injury last year in game one, Grant was a huge disappointment for anyone who drafted him. But now he's back and until you get definite word from the Packers that he's been replaced, waived, and sent on mission work to South America, he's got a lot more value than the preseason prognosticators have assigned him.
Joseph Addai (RB) - An aging guy who might end up getting replaced during another injury outing, or a who could earn 200 fantasy points. Fantasy experts for some reason just salivate at the idea of correctly guessing the year an aging star will fall off a cliff, and as such over-predict just such a thing happening at about a 2% success rate. He's the type of player you want to double check on to make sure he's not being forced out, but take any loose talk about some up and coming guys behind him with a big grain of salt.
LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) - He was on old joke last year until Shonn Greene suddenly proved he had no business being the Jets starting running back and LT went about doing what he's done his whole career. This lasted until about week 10, when he finally wore down and his responsibilities were spread around more. This year he's going to go cheap again, just because it's so unbelievable that he could do again what it seemed unbelievable last year. I say take the chance and reap the rewards. Veterans are always too quickly written off, just as rookies too quickly hyped up.
Chris Ivory (RB) - New Orleans best running back last year is now a $1 sleeper on ESPN? Thanks but I believe I will be more than willing to save a spot on my roster for the man who deserves to be the starter for the Saints. A definite every team bench pickup until the preseason games prove me wrong.
Miles Austin (WR) - Last year all my fantasy teams greatly benefited from my strategy of drafting top tier, but unappreciated wide-outs like Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Greg Jennings. This year all those guys will be going for way too much, while equally-talented steals like Miles Austin will be available after them. He has all the things you want in a #1 WR, talent, the team's top depth spot, and a star QB. This pick-up is a serious no-brainer.
Vincent Jackson (WR) - Not an absurdly great value, but definitely a guy whose price to production ratio makes him a terrific buy. Remember all those fantasy points Antonio Gates was getting last year? Now imagine them going to Vincent Jackson. I look forward to stocking quite a few teams up with a Jackson/Austin combo at the same auction price some other dude will pay for Andre Johnson.
Brandon Lloyd (WR) - Hey, I'm not going to blow smoke up your skirt with Lloyd, he likely vastly overperformed last year. You've got coaching changes, possible QB changes, team strategy changes and, again, a guy who just hasn't seemed to prove it to many people. But after last year's performance the Broncos would be fools not to try and utilize him as much as they can. What else do they have? Every slightly talented player on that team needs to be run at 110% if they aren't going to suffer another embarrassment of a season. For the price he's been evaluated at, I don't think you should feel any shame for grabbing up Lloyd, last year's top receiver.
Percy Harvin (WR) - As Minnesota's new #1 Harvin has gained quite a bit of value over last year. And let's not forget about the Viking's QB replacement of the completely ineffectual Brett Favre to the still capable Donovan McNabb. The hate's gone a little too far on McNabb: yes the Redskins and McNabb sucked last year, but did the Redskins suck because of McNabb or did McNabb suck because of the Redskins? Watching a good number of passes bounce off of Redskin receivers' hands last year should be a clue. Harvin is a cheap #1 wide-out who could make an excellent #2 fantasy WR.
Kevin Kolb (QB) - Last year he's heralded as a new star, now some sports analysts wonder if the Cardinals giving up a 2nd round pick was too much. Now, I'm not saying those analysts aren't dumb, to a man they all are, but it just goes to show how poor memory and judgement can be in the sports world. Kolb has the talent to be a top of league star and now he's definitely starting and he's definitely throwing the either #1 or #2 most talented wide receiver in the league, Larry Fitzgerald. I think if you don't want to get one of the high-potential scramblers (Vick or Rodgers) you could wait till the very end of the draft on Kolb, and get a guy who might only finish the season 20 or 30 points behind the expensive guys like Manning and Brees.
Well that's all the great values for now. Be sure to check out other articles from this year's Fantasy Football Abstract to get lots more draft day strategy and player info. Now get out there, and good luck!
