2nd thru 4th Rounds
If you had an early pick in the first round, you’ll get a late pick in the second and an early third round pick. Frequently there are still great quarterbacks and wides available. This is why getting the first or second pick is so ridiculously advantageous. By my very unscientific calculations there is usually a big drop off of projected quality around the 22nd or 23rd pick. Because of this, it’s possible for an owner who receives the 1st pick of the draft to end up with three pretty awesome players. For example, this year in one of my leagues I got the first pick and selected Chris Johnson, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss in the first three rounds. That’s larceny! And if you happen to get a first or second pick this year, I recommend you try and get top guys for your three big positions.
So continue filling out your roster with quality players during the first four rounds, using your draft plan and insider research to guide you. Everybody should get four decent players at least.
5th thru 8th Rounds
Now in rounds five through eight you’re wading through that mid-range of football talent. You can definitely look to pick up an elite tight end early on here. Last year three guys really excelled at the tight end position: Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Vernon Davis. Any of these three guys would be good picks this season, although a lot of people don’t trust Vernon Davis of the 49ers to repeat. Keep in mind that a great tight end is hopefully going to score around 160 fantasy points, while a mid-level tight end will score between 120 to 130 points. That’s the exact same difference between a great kicker and a mid-level kicker. But tight ends tend to be pretty reliable to project (not much more than kickers, truth be told) so if you can’t see a reliably good WR or RB left and Dallas Clark is still available, feel free to go for him. He’s unlikely to disappoint at least, even if he doesn’t smoke the competition.
In most leagues you’ll have six starters between your QB, WRs, and RBs and you want to finish filling out all of these by the end of the eighth round. In the old days it was cool to devalue quarterbacks and some old timers still do this, waiting until these rounds to find one. I don’t see you winning your league with Joe Flacco, but who knows. You might get extremely lucky.
Usually you’re going to be picking up your last starting runners or receivers here. Now if you charted projected fantasy talent for these positions it would form a bell curve (let’s use running backs) with top producers like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson at one very talented end and guys like Thomas Jones and Reggie Bush at the other. I’m only including possible starters here; if I included everybody from the bench rounds it would form a triangle of sucking. Anyway, in-between those two ends there’s this bulging area filled with players like Cedric Benson, Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Matt Forte, Jahvid Best, etc. Truth be told, these guys are all sort of projected to get 140 to 180 fantasy points, and how they all shake out is a little hazy. Not so hazy that experts don’t sort them out for rankings, but really those rankings are based on presumed potential to over-perform. Not that they will over-perform, but they might.
And that’s precisely what you’re drafting them for. You’re hoping for a diamond in the rough, or at least a semi-precious stone in the 6th round. Being football, I don’t know that there are any great sabermetric formulas, or reliable trends, or telephone psychics who will be able to guide you to the right guys. Just do the research, read about the guys with strong upside, and then do a gut-check for who you like best. Or just trust your cheatsheet and draft the highest guy available.
Alright, by the end of this draft period you want your main six guys, and either a tight end and good bench guy or two good bench guys. Since your drafting all these players based on pre-season projections, you want a little insurance by having a few quality bench guys who can step in or perhaps step up and have a surprisingly good season. The best bench guys are those ones who are likely to post reliable mid-range numbers and also have the potential to jump ahead and become a star.
And this is why doing your research is so crucial! Seasons can be won or lost by making smart picks in the middle of the draft. In fact, many people complain that league winners are often guys who get lucky with some seventh round pick who belonged in the first round. Maximize how lucky you are by being up to speed on depth charts, possible sleepers, and pre-season buzz. And you can gain a real advantage here because most owners spend too much time studying up on the top guys and ignoring the rest. Spending an hour determining who is likely to be the break-out 6th round selection this year is way more worthwhile than spending an hour considering if Chris Johnson is really the better pick over Adrian Peterson.
9th thru 16th Rounds
Finally, in fantasy football these days defenses will probably start going in the 9th round and kickers in the 10th. Experts will tell you that’s a bad thing and they probably are right. But no matter what they say, the fact is, if you want a top 5 kicker or defense you’re going to have to pick them well before the last round. The funny thing is, even though the experts find picking a defense early more acceptable than picking a kicker early, defenses are way more unpredictable. A top 5 kicker in the projections is likely to actually do well, even though I’ve heard people incorrectly claim otherwise. In 2009, three of the top 5 kickers finished the season in the top 5, and one finished 6th. How random! So if you really have to have that two extra points a game a #1 kicker can get you over a #10 kicker, then draft him when he’s available. But keep an open mind to getting a favorite sleeper with break-out potential if he’s available instead.
Defenses are probably the hardest position to project. Last year, out of the top 5 defense, only one finished in the top 5. And only one other top 5 team actually managed to finish in the top 10. A little has been written on why this is, and part of the reason is just the way defenses earn points. The best individual talent doesn’t always add up to getting a higher than average number of interceptions or fumble recoveries over a season. Or guarantee that you’ll get a long string of low scoring games. But also, analysts are trying to project the accomplishments of eleven+ men instead of just one. And at the very high level of talent in the NFL, picking out the differences is just an inaccurate science. So if you want my advice, don’t ever bite on a highly ranked defense when you have the chance to pick up a highly desirable bench guy. I know those pre-season rankings look so certain on draft day, but I guarantee you that they’re wrong. A defense sitting in the pre-season teens is going to finish in the top 5. I promise you. And a top 5 team will finish outside the top 10. Guaranteed. Just keep that in mind.
Alright, that concludes our snake draft strategy primer. It’s not that complicated to have a good strategy going into draft day, and I assure you, if you do some research, pay attention to NFL pre-season news, and make your own cheatsheet you’ll do a lot better over the coming season than somebody who just goes in there and drafts whoever the draft room list says he should. At least you probably will. With fantasy football, nobody knows what’s really going to happen till they play the game. Now get out there, and good luck!
